NFLNO PLAY research

Noah Gray

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameKansas City Chiefs @ Denver BroncosSun, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 24 games
Last 10 · receiving yards Measured: —
MCP consistency Model: —
Markets evaluated: 4

Evidence · receiving yardsNO PLAY

Line Market 14.5

Price-120

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel55.1%

Market impliedMarket54.5%

Model − market+0.6 ptsPrice -120

Edge Derived: +0.6 pts
EV per 1u Derived: +0.011u
Sample Measured: 24 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 31, 12:41 AM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · receiving yardsMeasured

Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.

Source & method · as of Oct 31, 12:41 AM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Noah Gray

J.K. Dobbins

Historical sample

24 g26 g

Last-10 hit rate

—100%

Best model − market gap

+3.8 pts+18.3 pts

Markets evaluated

Open J.K. Dobbins

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

ReceptionsOver the line in 3 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 2.0
Last 5: 2.2
Last 10: 1.7
Home · Away: 1.3 · 1.6

DAL

PIT

CIN

DEN

IND

MIA

LAC

SEA

Date	Opp	Receptions	Line
Oct 25	@ SEA	3	1.5	Over
Oct 18	vs LAC	3	1.5	Over
Oct 4	@ LV	2	1.5	Over
Sep 27	@ MIA	3	—
Sep 20	vs IND	0	—
Sep 14	vs DEN	1	1.5	Under
Jan 2	@ CIN	1	—
Dec 26	vs PIT	2	—
Nov 21	vs DAL	1	—
Nov 14	@ LV	1	—

Receiving yardsOver the line in 3 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 26.3
Last 5: 30.6
Last 10: 18.5
Home · Away: 13.8 · 15.9

DAL

PIT

CIN

DEN

IND

MIA

LAC

SEA

Date	Opp	Receiving yards	Line
Oct 25	@ SEA	44	15.5	Over
Oct 18	vs LAC	53	15.5	Over
Oct 4	@ LV	17	8.5	Over
Sep 27	@ MIA	39	—
Sep 20	vs IND	0	—
Sep 14	vs DEN	5	8.5	Under
Jan 2	@ CIN	6	—
Dec 26	vs PIT	12	—
Nov 21	vs DAL	8	—
Nov 14	@ LV	1	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players

J.K. Dobbinsrushing yards10/10 last 10 RJ Harveyreceiving yards7/8 last 10 Emmett Johnsonreceiving yards6 g sample Travis Kelcereceiving yards123 g sample Xavier Worthyreceptions9 g sample Kenneth Walker IIIrushing yards10 g sample Evan Engramreceptions76 g sample Rashee Ricereceiving yards7 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 31, 12:41 AM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.