NFLNO PLAY research

Travis Kelce

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameKansas City Chiefs @ Denver BroncosSun, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 123 games
Last 10 · receiving yards Measured: —
MCP consistency Model: —
Markets evaluated: 4

Evidence · receiving yardsNO PLAY

Line Market 48.5

Price-115

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel60.1%

Market impliedMarket53.5%

Model − market+6.6 ptsPrice -115

Edge Derived: +6.6 pts
EV per 1u Derived: +0.123u
Sample Measured: 123 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

REPICOM evaluated this leg, but the complete NFL production qualification gates were not satisfied.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · receiving yardsMeasured

Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Travis Kelce

J.K. Dobbins

Historical sample

123 g26 g

Last-10 hit rate

—90%

Best model − market gap

+6.6 pts+17.6 pts

Markets evaluated

Open J.K. Dobbins

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

ReceptionsOver the line in 0 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 4.0
Last 5: 4.2
Last 10: 4.6
Home · Away: 5.8 · 5.9

LAC

CIN

DEN

IND

MIA

LAC

SEA

Date	Opp	Receptions	Line
Oct 25	@ SEA	4	4.5	Under
Oct 18	vs LAC	4	4.5	Under
Oct 4	@ LV	2	4.5	Under
Sep 27	@ MIA	2	4.5	Under
Sep 20	vs IND	9	—
Sep 14	vs DEN	3	3.5	Under
Jan 8	@ DEN	4	—
Jan 2	@ CIN	5	—
Dec 16	@ LAC	10	—
Dec 12	vs LV	3	—

Receiving yardsOver the line in 2 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 57.2
Last 5: 54.4
Last 10: 62.0
Home · Away: 80.3 · 76.0

191

LAC

CIN

DEN

101

IND

MIA

LAC

SEA

Date	Opp	Receiving yards	Line
Oct 25	@ SEA	44	47.5	Under
Oct 18	vs LAC	53	54.5	Under
Oct 4	@ LV	15	48.5	Under
Sep 27	@ MIA	59	52.5	Over
Sep 20	vs IND	101	—
Sep 14	vs DEN	71	41.5	Over
Jan 8	@ DEN	34	—
Jan 2	@ CIN	25	—
Dec 16	@ LAC	191	—
Dec 12	vs LV	27	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game4 players

J.K. Dobbinsrushing yards9/10 last 10 RJ Harveyreceiving yards6/8 last 10 Kenneth Walker IIIrushing yards10 g sample Bo Nixpassing yards9 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.