Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · rushing yardsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 109/1090%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
1
MCP consistency Model
33.2
Line on record
25.5
Comparable miss streaks: 4 on record · next-game hit rate 75.0%. Context only — not a “due” signal.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
Rushing yardsOver the line in 1 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
41.9
Last 5
44.2
Last 10
59.4
Home · Away
53.0 · 46.8
64
JAX
77
NYG
160
CIN
36
KC
36
JAX
49
LA
40
SF
68
LAC
41
SEA
23
ARI
Date
Opp
Rushing yards
Line
Oct 25
@ ARI
23
48.5
Under
Oct 15
vs SEA
41
50.5
Under
Oct 11
@ LAC
68
51.5
Over
Oct 4
@ SF
40
59.5
Under
Sep 27
vs LA
49
—
Sep 20
vs JAX
36
58.5
Under
Sep 14
@ KC
36
—
Jan 3
@ CIN
160
—
Dec 27
vs NYG
77
—
Dec 20
vs JAX
64
—
ReceptionsOver the line in 1 of last 2 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
1.1
Last 5
1.6
Last 10
0.9
Home · Away
1.4 · 1.0
1
JAX
0
NYG
0
CIN
0
KC
0
JAX
1
LA
2
SF
2
LAC
3
SEA
0
ARI
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
@ ARI
0
1.5
Under
Oct 15
vs SEA
3
1.5
Over
Oct 11
@ LAC
2
—
Oct 4
@ SF
2
—
Sep 27
vs LA
1
—
Sep 20
vs JAX
0
—
Sep 14
@ KC
0
—
Jan 3
@ CIN
0
—
Dec 27
vs NYG
0
—
Dec 20
vs JAX
1
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 1 of last 2 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
3.9
Last 5
5.4
Last 10
4.4
Home · Away
9.8 · 3.5
17
JAX
0
NYG
0
CIN
0
KC
0
JAX
4
LA
12
SF
6
LAC
5
SEA
0
ARI
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
@ ARI
0
4.5
Under
Oct 15
vs SEA
5
2.5
Over
Oct 11
@ LAC
6
—
Oct 4
@ SF
12
—
Sep 27
vs LA
4
—
Sep 20
vs JAX
0
—
Sep 14
@ KC
0
—
Jan 3
@ CIN
0
—
Dec 27
vs NYG
0
—
Dec 20
vs JAX
17
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
