Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receiving yardsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 106/875%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
0
MCP consistency Model
40.4
Line on record
22.5
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
Rushing yardsOver the line in 2 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
14.5
Last 5
13.8
Last 10
14.5
Home · Away
15.5 · 14.0
18
KC
6
LA
25
SF
7
LAC
25
SEA
6
ARI
Date
Opp
Rushing yards
Line
Oct 25
@ ARI
6
14.5
Under
Oct 15
vs SEA
25
14.5
Over
Oct 11
@ LAC
7
26.5
Under
Oct 4
@ SF
25
15.5
Over
Sep 27
vs LA
6
—
Sep 14
@ KC
18
18.5
Under
ReceptionsOver the line in 2 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
4.2
Last 5
4.2
Last 10
4.2
Home · Away
4.5 · 4.0
4
KC
6
LA
10
SF
0
LAC
3
SEA
2
ARI
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
@ ARI
2
3.5
Under
Oct 15
vs SEA
3
3.5
Under
Oct 11
@ LAC
0
3.5
Under
Oct 4
@ SF
10
3.5
Over
Sep 27
vs LA
6
—
Sep 14
@ KC
4
2.5
Over
Receiving yardsOver the line in 4 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
36.2
Last 5
38.8
Last 10
36.2
Home · Away
36.0 · 36.3
23
KC
41
LA
68
SF
0
LAC
31
SEA
54
ARI
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
@ ARI
54
26.5
Over
Oct 15
vs SEA
31
22.5
Over
Oct 11
@ LAC
0
28.5
Under
Oct 4
@ SF
68
21.5
Over
Sep 27
vs LA
41
—
Sep 14
@ KC
23
16.5
Over
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
