Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 10:37 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
∅
Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 10:37 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 1 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
1.9
Last 5
1.6
Last 10
1.9
Home · Away
2.6 · 3.5
4
PHI
1
CHI
1
WAS
4
KC
1
JAX
0
LA
1
SF
4
LAC
2
SEA
1
ARI
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
@ ARI
1
2.5
Under
Oct 15
vs SEA
2
2.5
Under
Oct 11
@ LAC
4
2.5
Over
Oct 4
@ SF
1
2.5
Under
Sep 27
vs LA
0
—
Sep 20
vs JAX
1
2.5
Under
Sep 14
@ KC
4
—
Jan 9
vs WAS
1
—
Jan 2
@ CHI
1
—
Dec 26
@ PHI
4
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 1 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
19.4
Last 5
15.2
Last 10
16.9
Home · Away
26.1 · 36.1
17
PHI
12
CHI
4
WAS
43
KC
17
JAX
0
LA
6
SF
55
LAC
13
SEA
2
ARI
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
@ ARI
2
22.5
Under
Oct 15
vs SEA
13
21.5
Under
Oct 11
@ LAC
55
18.5
Over
Oct 4
@ SF
6
17.5
Under
Sep 27
vs LA
0
—
Sep 20
vs JAX
17
23.5
Under
Sep 14
@ KC
43
—
Jan 9
vs WAS
4
—
Jan 2
@ CHI
12
—
Dec 26
@ PHI
17
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 29, 10:37 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
