Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 104/580%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
0
MCP consistency Model
62.7
Line on record
4.5
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 2 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
6.0
Last 5
6.0
Last 10
6.0
Home · Away
6.0 · 6.0
3
BAL
6
KC
9
HOU
5
WAS
7
PIT
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 11
@ PIT
7
4.5
Over
Oct 4
@ WAS
5
5.5
Under
Sep 27
vs HOU
9
4.5
Over
Sep 20
@ KC
6
—
Sep 13
vs BAL
3
4.5
Under
Receiving yardsOver the line in 2 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
42.6
Last 5
42.6
Last 10
42.6
Home · Away
34.0 · 48.3
13
BAL
21
KC
55
HOU
41
WAS
83
PIT
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 11
@ PIT
83
44.5
Over
Oct 4
@ WAS
41
49.5
Under
Sep 27
vs HOU
55
46.5
Over
Sep 20
@ KC
21
—
Sep 13
vs BAL
13
44.5
Under
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
