Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:37 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receiving yardsMeasured
∅
Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:37 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 2 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
3.3
Last 5
3.6
Last 10
4.4
Home · Away
5.3 · 4.1
6
IND
6
BUF
8
JAX
4
MIA
2
CLE
1
DEN
7
NE
3
CIN
2
PHI
5
HOU
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 18
vs HOU
5
3.5
Over
Oct 11
vs PHI
2
3.5
Under
Oct 4
@ CIN
3
3.5
Under
Sep 27
vs NE
7
3.5
Over
Sep 20
@ DEN
1
3.5
Under
Sep 13
vs CLE
2
—
Jan 9
@ MIA
4
—
Jan 2
vs JAX
8
—
Dec 26
vs BUF
6
—
Dec 18
@ IND
6
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 2 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
47.5
Last 5
49.0
Last 10
53.1
Home · Away
60.2 · 49.8
44
IND
59
BUF
73
JAX
70
MIA
40
CLE
28
DEN
64
NE
33
CIN
37
PHI
83
HOU
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 18
vs HOU
83
34.5
Over
Oct 11
vs PHI
37
41.5
Under
Oct 4
@ CIN
33
40.5
Under
Sep 27
vs NE
64
34.5
Over
Sep 20
@ DEN
28
34.5
Under
Sep 13
vs CLE
40
—
Jan 9
@ MIA
70
—
Jan 2
vs JAX
73
—
Dec 26
vs BUF
59
—
Dec 18
@ IND
44
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:37 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
