Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:37 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 106/786%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
1
MCP consistency Model
34.6
Line on record
2.5
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:37 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
Rushing yardsOver the line in 5 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
64.7
Last 5
64.4
Last 10
64.7
Home · Away
62.5 · 69.0
66
CLE
65
DEN
73
NE
73
CIN
72
PHI
39
HOU
Date
Opp
Rushing yards
Line
Oct 18
vs HOU
39
63.5
Under
Oct 11
vs PHI
72
68.5
Over
Oct 4
@ CIN
73
54.5
Over
Sep 27
vs NE
73
51.5
Over
Sep 20
@ DEN
65
50.5
Over
Sep 13
vs CLE
66
46.5
Over
ReceptionsOver the line in 5 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
2.2
Last 5
2.4
Last 10
2.2
Home · Away
2.3 · 2.0
1
CLE
2
DEN
2
NE
2
CIN
2
PHI
4
HOU
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 18
vs HOU
4
1.5
Over
Oct 11
vs PHI
2
1.5
Over
Oct 4
@ CIN
2
1.5
Over
Sep 27
vs NE
2
1.5
Over
Sep 20
@ DEN
2
1.5
Over
Sep 13
vs CLE
1
1.5
Under
Receiving yardsOver the line in 5 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
21.0
Last 5
20.8
Last 10
21.0
Home · Away
27.8 · 7.5
22
CLE
-3
DEN
17
NE
18
CIN
24
PHI
48
HOU
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 18
vs HOU
48
9.5
Over
Oct 11
vs PHI
24
9.5
Over
Oct 4
@ CIN
18
10.5
Over
Sep 27
vs NE
17
10.5
Over
Sep 20
@ DEN
-3
8.5
Under
Sep 13
vs CLE
22
10.5
Over
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:37 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
