Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · rushing yardsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 109/1090%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
0
MCP consistency Model
46.9
Line on record
63.5
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
Rushing yardsOver the line in 4 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
83.9
Last 5
79.4
Last 10
88.0
Home · Away
102.6 · 89.2
108
ARI
108
LV
77
JAX
98
BAL
92
KC
68
HOU
95
WAS
45
PIT
94
TEN
95
MIN
Date
Opp
Rushing yards
Line
Oct 25
@ MIN
95
70.5
Over
Oct 18
vs TEN
94
90.5
Over
Oct 11
@ PIT
45
86.5
Under
Oct 4
@ WAS
95
90.5
Over
Sep 27
vs HOU
68
82.5
Under
Sep 20
@ KC
92
—
Sep 13
vs BAL
98
76.5
Over
Jan 9
@ JAX
77
—
Jan 2
vs LV
108
—
Dec 25
@ ARI
108
—
ReceptionsOver the line in 2 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
2.4
Last 5
2.0
Last 10
2.1
Home · Away
2.7 · 2.1
0
ARI
1
LV
3
JAX
3
BAL
4
KC
2
HOU
1
WAS
3
PIT
2
TEN
2
MIN
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
@ MIN
2
2.5
Under
Oct 18
vs TEN
2
2.5
Under
Oct 11
@ PIT
3
2.5
Over
Oct 4
@ WAS
1
2.5
Under
Sep 27
vs HOU
2
2.5
Under
Sep 20
@ KC
4
—
Sep 13
vs BAL
3
2.5
Over
Jan 9
@ JAX
3
—
Jan 2
vs LV
1
—
Dec 25
@ ARI
0
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 3 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
25.4
Last 5
23.0
Last 10
20.2
Home · Away
21.6 · 21.3
0
ARI
6
LV
18
JAX
23
BAL
40
KC
4
HOU
2
WAS
37
PIT
57
TEN
15
MIN
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
@ MIN
15
17.5
Under
Oct 18
vs TEN
57
17.5
Over
Oct 11
@ PIT
37
15.5
Over
Oct 4
@ WAS
2
19.5
Under
Sep 27
vs HOU
4
21.5
Under
Sep 20
@ KC
40
—
Sep 13
vs BAL
23
14.5
Over
Jan 9
@ JAX
18
—
Jan 2
vs LV
6
—
Dec 25
@ ARI
0
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
