NFLNO PLAY research

Daniel Jones

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameIndianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 47 games
Last 10 · passing yards Measured: —
MCP consistency Model: —
Markets evaluated: 2

Evidence · passing yardsNO PLAY

Line Market 190.5

Price-115

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel58.0%

Market impliedMarket53.5%

Model − market+4.6 ptsPrice -115

Edge Derived: +4.6 pts
EV per 1u Derived: +0.085u
Sample Measured: 47 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model confidence is below the 60% NFL qualification floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · passing yardsMeasured

Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Daniel Jones

Bhayshul Tuten

Historical sample

47 g7 g

Last-10 hit rate

—86%

Best model − market gap

+4.6 pts+10.1 pts

Markets evaluated

Open Bhayshul Tuten

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

Passing yardsOver the line in 3 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 199.7
Last 5: 204.4
Last 10: 187.7
Home · Away: 216.9 · 219.7

110

167

202

PHI

166

BAL

210

235

HOU

143

WAS

267

PIT

269

TEN

108

MIN

Date	Opp	Passing yards	Line
Oct 25	@ MIN	108	189.5	Under
Oct 18	vs TEN	269	228.5	Over
Oct 11	@ PIT	267	210.5	Over
Oct 4	@ WAS	143	225.5	Under
Sep 27	vs HOU	235	213.5	Over
Sep 20	@ KC	210	—
Sep 13	vs BAL	166	—
Nov 28	vs PHI	202	—
Nov 22	@ TB	167	—
Nov 7	vs LV	110	—

Rushing yardsOver the line in 2 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 9.7
Last 5: 10.8
Last 10: 12.5
Home · Away: 26.8 · 21.8

PHI

BAL

HOU

WAS

PIT

TEN

MIN

Date	Opp	Rushing yards	Line
Oct 25	@ MIN	13	6.5	Over
Oct 18	vs TEN	30	6.5	Over
Oct 11	@ PIT	4	8.5	Under
Oct 4	@ WAS	2	11.5	Under
Sep 27	vs HOU	5	9.5	Under
Sep 20	@ KC	10	—
Sep 13	vs BAL	4	—
Nov 28	vs PHI	30	—
Nov 22	@ TB	10	—
Nov 7	vs LV	17	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game7 players

Bhayshul Tutenreceptions6/7 last 10 Jonathan Taylorrushing yards9/10 last 10 Tyler Warrenreceptions4/5 last 10 Jakobi Meyersreceiving yards47 g sample Parker Washingtonreceptions7 g sample Brenton Strangereceiving yards7 g sample Chris Rodriguez Jr.rushing yards6 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.