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NFLNO PLAY research

Nate Boerkircher

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameIndianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETGame intelligence →
Historical sample Measured
5 games
Last 10 · receptions Measured
4/5
MCP consistency Model
30.3
Markets evaluated
4
Evidence · receptionsNO PLAY
Line MarketOVER 0.5
Price-260
Sportsbook—
REPICOM modelModel69.5%
Market impliedMarket72.2%
Model − market-2.7 ptsPrice -260
Edge Derived
-2.7 pts
EV per 1u Derived
-0.038u
Sample Measured
5 g
REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 31, 12:40 AM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 104/580%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
0
MCP consistency Model
30.3
Line on record
0.5
Source & method · as of Oct 31, 12:40 AM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample
recent10_games
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data
No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.
Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market
REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts
Compare playersPublic research only
Nate Boerkircher
Jonathan Taylor
Historical sample
5 g40 g
Last-10 hit rate
80%90%
Best model − market gap
+10.4 pts+17.6 pts
Markets evaluated
46
Open Jonathan Taylor
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 1 of last 1 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
1.2
Last 5
1.2
Last 10
1.2
Home · Away
1.3 · 1.0
DateOppReceptionsLine
Oct 18vs HOU20.5Over
Oct 11vs PHI2—
Oct 4@ CIN1—
Sep 27vs NE0—
Sep 13vs CLE1—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 1 of last 1 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
10.4
Last 5
10.4
Last 10
10.4
Home · Away
9.3 · 15.0
DateOppReceiving yardsLine
Oct 18vs HOU84.5Over
Oct 11vs PHI20—
Oct 4@ CIN15—
Sep 27vs NE0—
Sep 13vs CLE9—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players
Jonathan Taylorrushing yards9/10 last 10Bhayshul Tutenreceptions6/7 last 10Tyler Warrenreceptions5 g sampleKeenan Allenreceiving yards88 g sampleJosh Downsreceiving yards7 g sampleJakobi Meyersreceiving yards47 g sampleJosh Cameronreceiving yards6 g sampleDaniel Jonespassing yards47 g sample
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 31, 12:40 AM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.