Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:49 AM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receiving yardsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 108/1080%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
1
MCP consistency Model
34.6
Line on record
30.5
Comparable miss streaks: 16 on record · next-game hit rate 62.5%. Context only — not a “due” signal.
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:49 AM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 2 of last 7 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
3.9
Last 5
4.0
Last 10
5.8
Home · Away
5.6 · 5.8
15
ATL
10
BUF
6
NO
4
CIN
3
CLE
3
MIN
6
GB
3
DAL
4
PIT
4
CAR
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
@ CAR
4
4.5
Under
Oct 18
vs PIT
4
3.5
Over
Oct 8
@ DAL
3
3.5
Under
Oct 4
vs GB
6
2.5
Over
Sep 27
vs MIN
3
3.5
Under
Sep 20
vs CLE
3
3.5
Under
Sep 13
@ CIN
4
4.5
Under
Dec 19
vs NO
6
—
Dec 12
vs BUF
10
—
Dec 5
@ ATL
15
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 4 of last 7 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
34.7
Last 5
31.4
Last 10
54.0
Home · Away
64.9 · 70.8
143
ATL
105
BUF
49
NO
40
CIN
46
CLE
25
MIN
31
GB
37
DAL
37
PIT
27
CAR
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
@ CAR
27
44.5
Under
Oct 18
vs PIT
37
27.5
Over
Oct 8
@ DAL
37
32.5
Over
Oct 4
vs GB
31
27.5
Over
Sep 27
vs MIN
25
35.5
Under
Sep 20
vs CLE
46
37.5
Over
Sep 13
@ CIN
40
44.5
Under
Dec 19
vs NO
49
—
Dec 12
vs BUF
105
—
Dec 5
@ ATL
143
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 29, 3:49 AM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
