NFLNO PLAY research

Baker Mayfield

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameAtlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 69 games
Last 10 · passing yards Measured: —
MCP consistency Model: —
Markets evaluated: 2

Evidence · passing yardsNO PLAY

Line Market 216.5

Price-115

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel53.1%

Market impliedMarket53.5%

Model − market-0.4 ptsPrice -115

Edge Derived: -0.4 pts
EV per 1u Derived: -0.007u
Sample Measured: 69 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model confidence is below the 60% NFL qualification floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · passing yardsMeasured

Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Baker Mayfield

Bucky Irving

Historical sample

69 g8 g

Last-10 hit rate

—75%

Best model − market gap

-0.4 pts+4.4 pts

Markets evaluated

Open Bucky Irving

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

Passing yardsOver the line in 1 of last 3 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 169.8
Last 5: 172.8
Last 10: 177.2
Home · Away: 206.4 · 219.4

176

DET

247

BAL

190

BAL

222

185

PIT

216

CIN

182

CLE

217

MIN

CAR

Date	Opp	Passing yards	Line
Oct 25	@ CAR	64	216.5	Under
Sep 27	vs MIN	217	216.5	Over
Sep 20	vs CLE	182	208.5	Under
Sep 13	@ CIN	216	—
Jan 3	@ PIT	185	—
Dec 25	@ GB	222	—
Dec 12	vs BAL	190	—
Nov 28	@ BAL	247	—
Nov 21	vs DET	176	—
Nov 14	@ NE	73	—

Rushing yardsOver the line in 1 of last 3 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 16.5
Last 5: 16.4
Last 10: 12.0
Home · Away: 15.1 · 6.9

DET

BAL

PIT

CIN

CLE

MIN

CAR

Date	Opp	Rushing yards	Line
Oct 25	@ CAR	1	16.5	Under
Sep 27	vs MIN	6	17.5	Under
Sep 20	vs CLE	29	16.5	Over
Sep 13	@ CIN	30	—
Jan 3	@ PIT	16	—
Dec 25	@ GB	11	—
Dec 12	vs BAL	14	—
Nov 28	@ BAL	4	—
Nov 21	vs DET	9	—
Nov 14	@ NE	0	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game5 players

Bucky Irvingreceptions6/8 last 10 Drake Londonreceptions7 g sample Jahan Dotsonreceiving yards10 g sample Michael Penix Jr.passing yards5 g sample Bijan Robinsonreceiving yards7 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.