NFLNO PLAY research

Michael Penix Jr.

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameAtlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 5 games
Last 10 · passing yards Measured: —
MCP consistency Model: —
Markets evaluated: 2

Evidence · passing yardsNO PLAY

Line Market 223.5

Price-115

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel55.3%

Market impliedMarket53.5%

Model − market+1.8 ptsPrice -115

Edge Derived: +1.8 pts
EV per 1u Derived: +0.034u
Sample Measured: 5 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:37 PM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · passing yardsMeasured

Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:37 PM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Michael Penix Jr.

Bucky Irving

Historical sample

5 g8 g

Last-10 hit rate

—75%

Best model − market gap

+1.8 pts+4.4 pts

Markets evaluated

Open Bucky Irving

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

Passing yardsOver the line in 1 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 231.4
Last 5: 231.4
Last 10: 231.4
Home · Away: 226.0 · 239.5

256

223

240

BAL

225

CHI

213

Date	Opp	Passing yards	Line
Oct 25	vs SF	213	231.5	Under
Oct 18	vs CHI	225	238.5	Under
Oct 11	vs BAL	240	222.5	Over
Oct 5	@ NO	223	226.5	Under
Sep 24	@ GB	256	—

Rushing yardsOver the line in 1 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 0.8
Last 5: 0.8
Last 10: 0.8
Home · Away: 2.7 · -2.0

-2

BAL

CHI

-1

Date	Opp	Rushing yards	Line
Oct 25	vs SF	-1	1.5	Under
Oct 18	vs CHI	1	2.5	Under
Oct 11	vs BAL	8	0.5	Over
Oct 5	@ NO	-2	4.5	Under
Sep 24	@ GB	-2	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game5 players

Bucky Irvingreceptions6/8 last 10 Drake Londonreceptions7 g sample Jahan Dotsonreceiving yards10 g sample Bijan Robinsonreceiving yards7 g sample Baker Mayfieldpassing yards69 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:37 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.