Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 106/875%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
0
MCP consistency Model
14.5
Line on record
2.5
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
Rushing yardsOver the line in 4 of last 7 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
79.7
Last 5
84.8
Last 10
79.7
Home · Away
60.5 · 105.3
45
CIN
89
CLE
46
MIN
61
GB
165
DAL
46
PIT
106
CAR
Date
Opp
Rushing yards
Line
Oct 25
@ CAR
106
66.5
Over
Oct 18
vs PIT
46
66.5
Under
Oct 8
@ DAL
165
53.5
Over
Oct 4
vs GB
61
55.5
Over
Sep 27
vs MIN
46
57.5
Under
Sep 20
vs CLE
89
60.5
Over
Sep 13
@ CIN
45
56.5
Under
ReceptionsOver the line in 3 of last 7 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
2.6
Last 5
1.4
Last 10
2.6
Home · Away
2.0 · 3.3
7
CIN
4
CLE
2
MIN
0
GB
2
DAL
2
PIT
1
CAR
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
@ CAR
1
2.5
Under
Oct 18
vs PIT
2
1.5
Over
Oct 8
@ DAL
2
2.5
Under
Oct 4
vs GB
0
2.5
Under
Sep 27
vs MIN
2
2.5
Under
Sep 20
vs CLE
4
2.5
Over
Sep 13
@ CIN
7
1.5
Over
Receiving yardsOver the line in 1 of last 7 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
11.1
Last 5
5.8
Last 10
11.1
Home · Away
4.0 · 20.7
48
CIN
1
CLE
12
MIN
0
GB
10
DAL
3
PIT
4
CAR
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
@ CAR
4
16.5
Under
Oct 18
vs PIT
3
10.5
Under
Oct 8
@ DAL
10
12.5
Under
Oct 4
vs GB
0
12.5
Under
Sep 27
vs MIN
12
15.5
Under
Sep 20
vs CLE
1
16.5
Under
Sep 13
@ CIN
48
13.5
Over
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
