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NFLNO PLAY research

Will Kacmarek

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameNew England Patriots @ Miami DolphinsSun, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ETGame intelligence →
Historical sample Measured
5 games
Last 10 · receptions Measured
—
MCP consistency Model
—
Markets evaluated
3
Evidence · receptionsNO PLAY
Line Market 0.5
Price-130
Sportsbook—
REPICOM modelModel56.2%
Market impliedMarket56.5%
Model − market-0.3 ptsPrice -130
Edge Derived
-0.3 pts
EV per 1u Derived
-0.005u
Sample Measured
5 g
REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 31, 12:41 AM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.
Source & method · as of Oct 31, 12:41 AM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample
recent10_games
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data
No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.
Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market
REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts
Compare playersPublic research only
Will Kacmarek
Kyle Williams
Historical sample
5 g10 g
Last-10 hit rate
—90%
Best model − market gap
+1.8 pts+13.6 pts
Markets evaluated
31
Open Kyle Williams
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 0 of last 1 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
0.6
Last 5
0.6
Last 10
0.6
Home · Away
0.5 · 0.7
DateOppReceptionsLine
Oct 11vs CIN11.5Under
Oct 4@ MIN1—
Sep 27vs KC0—
Sep 20@ SF1—
Sep 13@ LV0—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 0 of last 1 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
4.8
Last 5
4.8
Last 10
4.8
Home · Away
2.5 · 6.3
DateOppReceiving yardsLine
Oct 11vs CIN56.5Under
Oct 4@ MIN15—
Sep 27vs KC0—
Sep 20@ SF4—
Sep 13@ LV0—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players
Kyle Williamsreceptions9/10 last 10Jaylen Wrightrushing yards5/5 last 10Efton Chism IIIreceptions7/8 last 10A.J. Brownreceptions59 g sampleMalik Washingtonreceiving yards6 g sampleRhamondre Stevensonrushing yards24 g sampleCorey Kinerrushing yards7 g sampleHunter Henryreceiving yards80 g sample
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 31, 12:41 AM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.