NFLNO PLAY research

Kyle Williams

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameNew England Patriots @ Miami DolphinsSun, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 10 games
Last 10 · receptions Measured: 9/10
MCP consistency Model: 0
Markets evaluated: 4

Evidence · receptionsNO PLAY

Line MarketUNDER 1.5

Price-220

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel76.8%

Market impliedMarket68.7%

Model − market+8.0 ptsPrice -220

Edge Derived: +8.0 pts
EV per 1u Derived: +0.117u
Sample Measured: 10 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:37 PM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · receptionsMeasured

Cleared the line, last 109/1090%

Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.

Current miss streak: 0
MCP consistency Model: 0
Line on record: 1.5

Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:37 PM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Kyle Williams

Jaylen Wright

Historical sample

10 g5 g

Last-10 hit rate

90%100%

Best model − market gap

+13.4 pts+18.9 pts

Markets evaluated

Open Jaylen Wright

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

ReceptionsOver the line in 2 of last 3 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 0.9
Last 5: 1.0
Last 10: 0.9
Home · Away: 1.7 · 0.3

SEA

PIT

JAX

BUF

NYJ

CHI

Date	Opp	Receptions	Line
Oct 22	@ CHI	0	1.5	Under
Oct 18	vs NYJ	1	—
Oct 11	vs LV	3	1.5	Over
Oct 4	@ BUF	0	—
Sep 27	@ JAX	1	0.5	Over
Sep 20	vs PIT	1	—
Sep 9	@ SEA	0	—

Receiving yardsOver the line in 2 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 21.0
Last 5: 27.4
Last 10: 21.0
Home · Away: 37.7 · 8.5

SEA

PIT

JAX

BUF

NYJ

CHI

Date	Opp	Receiving yards	Line
Oct 22	@ CHI	0	20.5	Under
Oct 18	vs NYJ	12	—
Oct 11	vs LV	91	14.5	Over
Oct 4	@ BUF	0	12.5	Under
Sep 27	@ JAX	34	7.5	Over
Sep 20	vs PIT	10	—
Sep 9	@ SEA	0	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players

Jaylen Wrightrushing yards5/5 last 10 Malik Washingtonreceiving yards6 g sample A.J. Brownreceptions59 g sample Corey Kinerrushing yards7 g sample Malik Willispassing yards6 g sample Hunter Henryreceptions80 g sample Eli Raridonreceptions6 g sample Ollie Gordon IIreceptions5 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 29, 3:37 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.