Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
∅
Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 3 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
3.7
Last 5
4.0
Last 10
3.5
Home · Away
3.2 · 3.9
1
BUF
3
JAX
5
MIA
3
SEA
3
PIT
1
JAX
5
BUF
3
LV
4
NYJ
7
CHI
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 22
@ CHI
7
3.5
Over
Oct 18
vs NYJ
4
2.5
Over
Oct 11
vs LV
3
3.5
Under
Oct 4
@ BUF
5
3.5
Over
Sep 27
@ JAX
1
3.5
Under
Sep 20
vs PIT
3
3.5
Under
Sep 9
@ SEA
3
—
Jan 9
@ MIA
5
—
Jan 2
vs JAX
3
—
Dec 26
vs BUF
1
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 5 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
42.3
Last 5
46.0
Last 10
42.8
Home · Away
31.1 · 45.8
9
BUF
37
JAX
86
MIA
26
SEA
40
PIT
5
JAX
62
BUF
44
LV
48
NYJ
71
CHI
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 22
@ CHI
71
35.5
Over
Oct 18
vs NYJ
48
27.5
Over
Oct 11
vs LV
44
37.5
Over
Oct 4
@ BUF
62
31.5
Over
Sep 27
@ JAX
5
41.5
Under
Sep 20
vs PIT
40
37.5
Over
Sep 9
@ SEA
26
—
Jan 9
@ MIA
86
—
Jan 2
vs JAX
37
—
Dec 26
vs BUF
9
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.