Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
∅
Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
Rushing yardsOver the line in 2 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
40.7
Last 5
38.2
Last 10
46.2
Home · Away
52.6 · 42.7
36
IND
107
JAX
34
MIA
51
SEA
43
PIT
22
JAX
47
BUF
64
LV
36
NYJ
22
CHI
Date
Opp
Rushing yards
Line
Oct 22
@ CHI
22
44.5
Under
Oct 18
vs NYJ
36
54.5
Under
Oct 11
vs LV
64
37.5
Over
Oct 4
@ BUF
47
32.5
Over
Sep 27
@ JAX
22
34.5
Under
Sep 20
vs PIT
43
48.5
Under
Sep 9
@ SEA
51
—
Jan 9
@ MIA
34
—
Jan 2
vs JAX
107
—
Dec 18
@ IND
36
—
ReceptionsOver the line in 4 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
2.9
Last 5
2.8
Last 10
2.2
Home · Away
1.5 · 2.0
1
IND
0
JAX
1
MIA
5
SEA
1
PIT
3
JAX
3
BUF
3
LV
0
NYJ
5
CHI
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 22
@ CHI
5
2.5
Over
Oct 18
vs NYJ
0
2.5
Under
Oct 11
vs LV
3
2.5
Over
Oct 4
@ BUF
3
2.5
Over
Sep 27
@ JAX
3
2.5
Over
Sep 20
vs PIT
1
2.5
Under
Sep 9
@ SEA
5
—
Jan 9
@ MIA
1
—
Jan 2
vs JAX
0
—
Dec 18
@ IND
1
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 4 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
29.1
Last 5
31.4
Last 10
21.0
Home · Away
10.8 · 21.9
4
IND
0
JAX
2
MIA
44
SEA
3
PIT
16
JAX
27
BUF
21
LV
0
NYJ
93
CHI
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 22
@ CHI
93
17.5
Over
Oct 18
vs NYJ
0
19.5
Under
Oct 11
vs LV
21
15.5
Over
Oct 4
@ BUF
27
18.5
Over
Sep 27
@ JAX
16
14.5
Over
Sep 20
vs PIT
3
18.5
Under
Sep 9
@ SEA
44
—
Jan 9
@ MIA
2
—
Jan 2
vs JAX
0
—
Dec 18
@ IND
4
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
