Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 108/1080%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
0
MCP consistency Model
41.1
Line on record
4.5
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 0 of last 2 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
3.0
Last 5
3.0
Last 10
4.7
Home · Away
4.6 · 4.9
10
IND
5
LA
1
NO
5
HOU
11
SF
2
MIA
4
HOU
3
SEA
3
NYJ
3
CHI
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 22
@ CHI
3
5.5
Under
Oct 18
vs NYJ
3
3.5
Under
Sep 9
@ SEA
3
—
Jan 9
@ HOU
4
—
Jan 2
vs MIA
2
—
Dec 23
vs SF
11
—
Nov 21
vs HOU
5
—
Nov 14
vs NO
1
—
Nov 7
@ LA
5
—
Oct 31
@ IND
10
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 0 of last 2 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
33.7
Last 5
42.0
Last 10
61.6
Home · Away
69.1 · 76.6
155
IND
42
LA
16
NO
48
HOU
145
SF
41
MIA
68
HOU
26
SEA
27
NYJ
48
CHI
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 22
@ CHI
48
72.5
Under
Oct 18
vs NYJ
27
50.5
Under
Sep 9
@ SEA
26
—
Jan 9
@ HOU
68
—
Jan 2
vs MIA
41
—
Dec 23
vs SF
145
—
Nov 21
vs HOU
48
—
Nov 14
vs NO
16
—
Nov 7
@ LA
42
—
Oct 31
@ IND
155
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
