Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:46 AM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 106/786%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
0
MCP consistency Model
74.2
Line on record
3.5
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:46 AM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 5 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
4.1
Last 5
4.4
Last 10
4.1
Home · Away
4.0 · 4.3
2
MIA
5
LAC
4
NO
4
KC
4
NE
5
BUF
5
LA
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
vs LA
5
—
Oct 18
vs BUF
5
3.5
Over
Oct 11
@ NE
4
3.5
Over
Oct 4
vs KC
4
3.5
Over
Sep 27
@ NO
4
3.5
Over
Sep 20
@ LAC
5
3.5
Over
Sep 13
vs MIA
2
4.5
Under
Receiving yardsOver the line in 5 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
67.7
Last 5
65.6
Last 10
67.7
Home · Away
67.8 · 67.7
27
MIA
119
LAC
43
NO
44
KC
41
NE
97
BUF
103
LA
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
vs LA
103
—
Oct 18
vs BUF
97
39.5
Over
Oct 11
@ NE
41
40.5
Over
Oct 4
vs KC
44
38.5
Over
Sep 27
@ NO
43
42.5
Over
Sep 20
@ LAC
119
35.5
Over
Sep 13
vs MIA
27
45.5
Under
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 29, 3:46 AM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
