Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:45 AM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 106/786%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
0
MCP consistency Model
41.9
Line on record
2.5
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:45 AM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 4 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
4.4
Last 5
4.4
Last 10
4.4
Home · Away
6.0 · 2.3
6
MIA
3
LAC
3
NO
8
KC
1
NE
7
BUF
3
LA
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
vs LA
3
—
Oct 18
vs BUF
7
2.5
Over
Oct 11
@ NE
1
3.5
Under
Oct 4
vs KC
8
2.5
Over
Sep 27
@ NO
3
2.5
Over
Sep 20
@ LAC
3
5.5
Under
Sep 13
vs MIA
6
4.5
Over
Receiving yardsOver the line in 4 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
42.6
Last 5
48.6
Last 10
42.6
Home · Away
60.3 · 19.0
32
MIA
23
LAC
32
NO
82
KC
2
NE
95
BUF
32
LA
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
vs LA
32
—
Oct 18
vs BUF
95
27.5
Over
Oct 11
@ NE
2
28.5
Under
Oct 4
vs KC
82
22.5
Over
Sep 27
@ NO
32
20.5
Over
Sep 20
@ LAC
23
44.5
Under
Sep 13
vs MIA
32
16.5
Over
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 29, 3:45 AM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
