NFLNO PLAY research

Geno Smith

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameLas Vegas Raiders @ New York JetsSun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 21 games
Last 10 · passing yards Measured: —
MCP consistency Model: —
Markets evaluated: 2

Evidence · passing yardsNO PLAY

Line Market 222.5

Price-115

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel56.9%

Market impliedMarket53.5%

Model − market+3.4 ptsPrice -115

Edge Derived: +3.4 pts
EV per 1u Derived: +0.064u
Sample Measured: 21 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · passing yardsMeasured

Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Geno Smith

John Metchie III

Historical sample

21 g8 g

Last-10 hit rate

—88%

Best model − market gap

+3.4 pts+16.3 pts

Markets evaluated

Open John Metchie III

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

Passing yardsOver the line in 3 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 231.9
Last 5: 232.2
Last 10: 219.4
Home · Away: 133.7 · 136.7

209

PIT

167

195

JAX

215

TEN

247

321

DET

119

CHI

182

CLE

252

287

MIA

Date	Opp	Passing yards	Line
Oct 25	vs MIA	287	223.5	Over
Oct 18	@ NE	252	213.5	Over
Oct 11	vs CLE	182	205.5	Under
Oct 4	@ CHI	119	227.5	Under
Sep 27	@ DET	321	—
Sep 20	vs GB	247	207.5	Over
Sep 13	@ TEN	215	—
Oct 31	vs JAX	195	—
Oct 25	vs NO	167	—
Oct 17	@ PIT	209	—

Rushing yardsOver the line in 1 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 6.0
Last 5: 3.6
Last 10: 6.1
Home · Away: 7.8 · 2.7

-1

PIT

JAX

TEN

DET

CHI

CLE

-1

MIA

Date	Opp	Rushing yards	Line
Oct 25	vs MIA	0	6.5	Under
Oct 18	@ NE	-1	7.5	Under
Oct 11	vs CLE	7	10.5	Under
Oct 4	@ CHI	0	10.5	Under
Sep 27	@ DET	12	—
Sep 20	vs GB	17	7.5	Over
Sep 13	@ TEN	7	—
Oct 31	vs JAX	8	—
Oct 25	vs NO	12	—
Oct 17	@ PIT	-1	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.