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NFLNO PLAY research

John Metchie III

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameCarolina Panthers @ Green Bay PackersThu, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ETGame intelligence →
Historical sample Measured
8 games
Last 10 · receptions Measured
7/8
MCP consistency Model
48.2
Markets evaluated
4
Evidence · receptionsNO PLAY
Line MarketOVER 1.5
Price-125
Sportsbook—
REPICOM modelModel70.4%
Market impliedMarket55.6%
Model − market+14.8 ptsPrice -125
Edge Derived
+14.8 pts
EV per 1u Derived
+0.267u
Sample Measured
8 g
REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 27, 3:14 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 107/888%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
0
MCP consistency Model
48.2
Line on record
1.5
Source & method · as of Oct 27, 3:14 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample
recent10_games
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data
No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.
Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market
REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts
Compare playersPublic research only
John Metchie III
Tetairoa McMillan
Historical sample
8 g7 g
Last-10 hit rate
88%71%
Best model − market gap
+16.3 pts+7.8 pts
Markets evaluated
44
Open Tetairoa McMillan
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 2 of last 2 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
1.8
Last 5
1.8
Last 10
1.8
Home · Away
2.5 · 1.3
DateOppReceptionsLine
Oct 25vs TB21.5Over
Oct 18@ PHI2—
Oct 4vs DET31.5Over
Sep 27@ CLE2—
Sep 20@ ATL0—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 2 of last 2 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
20.0
Last 5
20.0
Last 10
20.0
Home · Away
28.5 · 14.3
DateOppReceiving yardsLine
Oct 25vs TB2010.5Over
Oct 18@ PHI24—
Oct 4vs DET3721.5Over
Sep 27@ CLE19—
Sep 20@ ATL0—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players
Tetairoa McMillanreceptions5/7 last 10Christian Watsonreceiving yards7/10 last 10Tucker Kraftreceiving yards7/10 last 10Chuba Hubbardreceptions6/10 last 10MarShawn Lloydreceiving yards5/7 last 10Josh Jacobsreceiving yards7/10 last 10Matthew Goldenreceptions5/8 last 10Jalen Cokerreceiving yards4/6 last 10
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 27, 3:14 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.