Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 26, 10:07 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receiving yardsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 107/1070%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
1
MCP consistency Model
42.4
Line on record
42.5
Comparable miss streaks: 2 on record · next-game hit rate 100.0%. Context only — not a “due” signal.
Source & method · as of Oct 26, 10:07 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 3 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
4.1
Last 5
4.8
Last 10
4.1
Home · Away
4.7 · 3.8
3
MIN
2
NYJ
4
ATL
6
TB
5
CHI
5
DAL
4
DET
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
@ DET
4
4.5
Under
Oct 18
vs DAL
5
4.5
Over
Oct 11
vs CHI
5
4.5
Over
Oct 4
@ TB
6
3.5
Over
Sep 24
vs ATL
4
—
Sep 20
@ NYJ
2
3.5
Under
Sep 13
@ MIN
3
4.5
Under
Receiving yardsOver the line in 3 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
42.4
Last 5
43.4
Last 10
42.4
Home · Away
42.3 · 42.5
65
MIN
15
NYJ
26
ATL
42
TB
64
CHI
37
DAL
48
DET
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
@ DET
48
51.5
Under
Oct 18
vs DAL
37
50.5
Under
Oct 11
vs CHI
64
49.5
Over
Oct 4
@ TB
42
41.5
Over
Sep 24
vs ATL
26
—
Sep 20
@ NYJ
15
46.5
Under
Sep 13
@ MIN
65
45.5
Over
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 26, 10:07 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
