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NFLNO PLAY research

Darren Waller

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameCarolina Panthers @ Green Bay PackersThu, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ETGame intelligence →
Historical sample Measured
64 games
Last 10 · receptions Measured
5/10
MCP consistency Model
30.2
Markets evaluated
2
Evidence · receptionsNO PLAY
Line MarketOVER 2.5
Price+120
Sportsbook—
REPICOM modelModel52.7%
Market impliedMarket45.5%
Model − market+7.3 ptsPrice +120
Edge Derived
+7.3 pts
EV per 1u Derived
+0.160u
Sample Measured
64 g
REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 26, 10:06 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 105/1050%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
2
MCP consistency Model
30.2
Line on record
2.5

Comparable miss streaks: 14 on record · next-game hit rate 21.4%. Context only — not a “due” signal.

Source & method · as of Oct 26, 10:06 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample
recent10_games
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data
No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.
Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market
REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts
Compare playersPublic research only
Darren Waller
Tetairoa McMillan
Historical sample
64 g7 g
Last-10 hit rate
50%71%
Best model − market gap
+7.3 pts+7.8 pts
Markets evaluated
24
Open Tetairoa McMillan
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 0 of last 3 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
2.3
Last 5
2.4
Last 10
2.9
Home · Away
5.6 · 5.1
DateOppReceptionsLine
Oct 25vs TB12.5Under
Oct 18@ PHI02.5Under
Oct 4vs DET33.5Under
Sep 27@ CLE5—
Sep 20@ ATL3—
Sep 13vs CHI2—
Jan 9vs LAC2—
Nov 25@ DAL2—
Nov 21vs CIN7—
Nov 14vs KC4—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 1 of last 3 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
33.0
Last 5
34.0
Last 10
39.3
Home · Away
69.7 · 57.7
DateOppReceiving yardsLine
Oct 25vs TB5022.5Over
Oct 18@ PHI023.5Under
Oct 4vs DET3638.5Under
Sep 27@ CLE51—
Sep 20@ ATL33—
Sep 13vs CHI28—
Jan 9vs LAC22—
Nov 25@ DAL33—
Nov 21vs CIN116—
Nov 14vs KC24—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players
Tetairoa McMillanreceptions5/7 last 10Tucker Kraftreceiving yards7/10 last 10Christian Watsonreceiving yards7/10 last 10Chuba Hubbardreceptions6/10 last 10Josh Jacobsreceiving yards7/10 last 10Matthew Goldenreceptions5/8 last 10Jalen Cokerreceiving yards4/6 last 10MarShawn Lloydrushing yards4/7 last 10
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 26, 10:06 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.