Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 26, 10:06 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 106/1060%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
1
MCP consistency Model
18
Line on record
2.5
Comparable miss streaks: 6 on record · next-game hit rate 100.0%. Context only — not a “due” signal.
Source & method · as of Oct 26, 10:06 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
Rushing yardsOver the line in 2 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
76.5
Last 5
82.0
Last 10
61.1
Home · Away
42.1 · 54.2
40
BUF
9
TB
55
NO
48
TB
49
CHI
53
ATL
82
CLE
122
DET
120
PHI
33
TB
Date
Opp
Rushing yards
Line
Oct 25
vs TB
33
66.5
Under
Oct 18
@ PHI
120
70.5
Over
Oct 4
vs DET
122
66.5
Over
Sep 27
@ CLE
82
—
Sep 20
@ ATL
53
—
Sep 13
vs CHI
49
51.5
Under
Jan 9
@ TB
48
—
Jan 2
@ NO
55
—
Dec 26
vs TB
9
—
Dec 19
@ BUF
40
—
ReceptionsOver the line in 2 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
2.5
Last 5
2.4
Last 10
2.1
Home · Away
1.7 · 1.9
1
BUF
0
TB
3
NO
2
TB
3
CHI
2
ATL
4
CLE
1
DET
1
PHI
4
TB
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
vs TB
4
2.5
Over
Oct 18
@ PHI
1
2.5
Under
Oct 4
vs DET
1
2.5
Under
Sep 27
@ CLE
4
—
Sep 20
@ ATL
2
—
Sep 13
vs CHI
3
1.5
Over
Jan 9
@ TB
2
—
Jan 2
@ NO
3
—
Dec 26
vs TB
0
—
Dec 19
@ BUF
1
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 2 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
18.7
Last 5
14.8
Last 10
13.4
Home · Away
14.6 · 11.7
1
BUF
0
TB
13
NO
8
TB
38
CHI
11
ATL
28
CLE
7
DET
1
PHI
27
TB
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
vs TB
27
14.5
Over
Oct 18
@ PHI
1
15.5
Under
Oct 4
vs DET
7
19.5
Under
Sep 27
@ CLE
28
—
Sep 20
@ ATL
11
—
Sep 13
vs CHI
38
9.5
Over
Jan 9
@ TB
8
—
Jan 2
@ NO
13
—
Dec 26
vs TB
0
—
Dec 19
@ BUF
1
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 26, 10:06 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
