Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 26, 10:06 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receiving yardsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 107/1070%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
0
MCP consistency Model
20.1
Line on record
15.5
Source & method · as of Oct 26, 10:06 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
Rushing yardsNo Hard Rock lines in these games
2026 season
36.0
Last 5
82.4
Last 10
62.8
Home · Away
61.9 · 67.2
16
KC
37
CIN
87
DAL
52
WAS
24
KC
52
CLE
129
DEN
63
IND
132
LAC
36
DET
Date
Opp
Rushing yards
Line
Oct 25
@ DET
36
—
Jan 9
vs LAC
132
—
Jan 2
@ IND
63
—
Dec 26
vs DEN
129
—
Dec 20
@ CLE
52
—
Dec 12
@ KC
24
—
Dec 5
vs WAS
52
—
Nov 25
@ DAL
87
—
Nov 21
vs CIN
37
—
Nov 14
vs KC
16
—
ReceptionsNo Hard Rock lines in these games
2026 season
5.0
Last 5
3.0
Last 10
4.1
Home · Away
3.1 · 2.5
5
KC
5
CIN
2
DAL
9
WAS
5
KC
3
CLE
1
DEN
4
IND
2
LAC
5
DET
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
@ DET
5
—
Jan 9
vs LAC
2
—
Jan 2
@ IND
4
—
Dec 26
vs DEN
1
—
Dec 20
@ CLE
3
—
Dec 12
@ KC
5
—
Dec 5
vs WAS
9
—
Nov 25
@ DAL
2
—
Nov 21
vs CIN
5
—
Nov 14
vs KC
5
—
Receiving yardsNo Hard Rock lines in these games
2026 season
55.0
Last 5
24.2
Last 10
27.4
Home · Away
19.1 · 19.9
20
KC
24
CIN
25
DAL
38
WAS
46
KC
42
CLE
-5
DEN
17
IND
12
LAC
55
DET
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
@ DET
55
—
Jan 9
vs LAC
12
—
Jan 2
@ IND
17
—
Dec 26
vs DEN
-5
—
Dec 20
@ CLE
42
—
Dec 12
@ KC
46
—
Dec 5
vs WAS
38
—
Nov 25
@ DAL
25
—
Nov 21
vs CIN
24
—
Nov 14
vs KC
20
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 26, 10:06 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
