Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:49 AM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receiving yardsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 106/786%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
0
MCP consistency Model
60.6
Line on record
27.5
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:49 AM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
Rushing yardsOver the line in 2 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
46.9
Last 5
35.6
Last 10
46.9
Home · Away
49.3 · 43.7
102
MIA
48
LAC
56
NO
58
KC
27
NE
22
BUF
15
LA
Date
Opp
Rushing yards
Line
Oct 25
vs LA
15
—
Oct 18
vs BUF
22
55.5
Under
Oct 11
@ NE
27
58.5
Under
Oct 4
vs KC
58
57.5
Over
Sep 27
@ NO
56
68.5
Under
Sep 20
@ LAC
48
62.5
Under
Sep 13
vs MIA
102
57.5
Over
ReceptionsOver the line in 4 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
4.9
Last 5
4.8
Last 10
4.9
Home · Away
6.0 · 3.3
6
MIA
4
LAC
3
NO
6
KC
3
NE
4
BUF
8
LA
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
vs LA
8
—
Oct 18
vs BUF
4
3.5
Over
Oct 11
@ NE
3
3.5
Under
Oct 4
vs KC
6
3.5
Over
Sep 27
@ NO
3
3.5
Under
Sep 20
@ LAC
4
3.5
Over
Sep 13
vs MIA
6
3.5
Over
Receiving yardsOver the line in 5 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
44.6
Last 5
50.4
Last 10
44.6
Home · Away
52.5 · 34.0
45
MIA
15
LAC
37
NO
68
KC
50
NE
36
BUF
61
LA
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
vs LA
61
—
Oct 18
vs BUF
36
26.5
Over
Oct 11
@ NE
50
24.5
Over
Oct 4
vs KC
68
19.5
Over
Sep 27
@ NO
37
22.5
Over
Sep 20
@ LAC
15
27.5
Under
Sep 13
vs MIA
45
17.5
Over
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 29, 3:49 AM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
