Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · rushing yardsMeasured
∅
Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
Rushing yardsOver the line in 4 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
68.3
Last 5
75.8
Last 10
59.5
Home · Away
45.8 · 48.4
74
NYG
34
WAS
9
ARI
35
NYJ
64
PHI
74
NYG
48
BAL
52
HOU
76
IND
129
CLE
Date
Opp
Rushing yards
Line
Oct 25
vs CLE
129
66.5
Over
Oct 18
@ IND
76
57.5
Over
Oct 11
vs HOU
52
49.5
Over
Oct 4
@ BAL
48
48.5
Under
Sep 27
@ NYG
74
60.5
Over
Sep 20
vs PHI
64
—
Sep 13
vs NYJ
35
—
Jan 2
vs ARI
9
—
Dec 26
vs WAS
34
—
Dec 19
@ NYG
74
—
ReceptionsOver the line in 2 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
1.6
Last 5
1.8
Last 10
1.9
Home · Away
2.2 · 2.1
3
NYG
2
WAS
3
ARI
1
NYJ
1
PHI
4
NYG
2
BAL
0
HOU
0
IND
3
CLE
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
vs CLE
3
1.5
Over
Oct 18
@ IND
0
1.5
Under
Oct 11
vs HOU
0
1.5
Under
Oct 4
@ BAL
2
2.5
Under
Sep 27
@ NYG
4
1.5
Over
Sep 20
vs PHI
1
—
Sep 13
vs NYJ
1
—
Jan 2
vs ARI
3
—
Dec 26
vs WAS
2
—
Dec 19
@ NYG
3
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 2 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
7.1
Last 5
10.0
Last 10
12.8
Home · Away
18.7 · 12.9
13
NYG
16
WAS
49
ARI
-1
NYJ
1
PHI
22
NYG
2
BAL
0
HOU
0
IND
26
CLE
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
vs CLE
26
6.5
Over
Oct 18
@ IND
0
9.5
Under
Oct 11
vs HOU
0
8.5
Under
Oct 4
@ BAL
2
8.5
Under
Sep 27
@ NYG
22
6.5
Over
Sep 20
vs PHI
1
—
Sep 13
vs NYJ
-1
—
Jan 2
vs ARI
49
—
Dec 26
vs WAS
16
—
Dec 19
@ NYG
13
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
