NFLNO PLAY research

Joe Burrow

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameTennessee Titans @ Cincinnati BengalsSun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 39 games
Last 10 · passing yards Measured: —
MCP consistency Model: —
Markets evaluated: 2

Evidence · passing yardsNO PLAY

Line Market 267.5

Price-115

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel54.6%

Market impliedMarket53.5%

Model − market+1.1 ptsPrice -115

Edge Derived: +1.1 pts
EV per 1u Derived: +0.021u
Sample Measured: 39 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model confidence is below the 60% NFL qualification floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · passing yardsMeasured

Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Joe Burrow

Cam Ward

Historical sample

39 g7 g

Last-10 hit rate

—86%

Best model − market gap

+1.1 pts+14.7 pts

Markets evaluated

Open Cam Ward

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

Passing yardsOver the line in 3 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 275.5
Last 5: 279.8
Last 10: 312.9
Home · Away: 320.7 · 243.6

348

157

DEN

525

BAL

446

254

207

HOU

282

PIT

428

JAX

190

MIA

292

BAL

Date	Opp	Passing yards	Line
Oct 25	@ BAL	292	261.5	Over
Oct 11	@ MIA	190	255.5	Under
Oct 4	vs JAX	428	266.5	Over
Sep 27	@ PIT	282	254.5	Over
Sep 20	@ HOU	207	244.5	Under
Sep 13	vs TB	254	268.5	Under
Jan 2	vs KC	446	—
Dec 26	vs BAL	525	—
Dec 19	@ DEN	157	—
Dec 12	vs SF	348	—

Rushing yardsOver the line in 4 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 10.0
Last 5: 8.0
Last 10: 10.9
Home · Away: 12.1 · 8.1

DEN

BAL

-1

HOU

PIT

JAX

MIA

BAL

Date	Opp	Rushing yards	Line
Oct 25	@ BAL	12	6.5	Over
Oct 11	@ MIA	10	8.5	Over
Oct 4	vs JAX	6	8.5	Under
Sep 27	@ PIT	13	5.5	Over
Sep 20	@ HOU	-1	8.5	Under
Sep 13	vs TB	20	8.5	Over
Jan 2	vs KC	10	—
Dec 26	vs BAL	11	—
Dec 19	@ DEN	25	—
Dec 12	vs SF	3	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players

Cam Wardpassing yards6/7 last 10 Ja'Marr Chasereceptions7/10 last 10 Wan'Dale Robinsonreceiving yards7 g sample Gunnar Helmreceptions4/6 last 10 Tony Pollardrushing yards56 g sample Mike Gesickireceptions67 g sample Tee Higginsreceptions42 g sample Carnell Tatereceptions7 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.