NFLNO PLAY research

Cam Ward

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameTennessee Titans @ Cincinnati BengalsSun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 7 games
Last 10 · passing yards Measured: 6/7
MCP consistency Model: 77.5
Markets evaluated: 2

Evidence · passing yardsNO PLAY

Line MarketUNDER 199.5

Price-115

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel68.2%

Market impliedMarket53.5%

Model − market+14.7 ptsPrice -115

Edge Derived: +14.7 pts
EV per 1u Derived: +0.275u
Sample Measured: 7 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · passing yardsMeasured

Cleared the line, last 106/786%

Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.

Current miss streak: 0
MCP consistency Model: 77.5
Line on record: 199.5

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Cam Ward

Ja'Marr Chase

Historical sample

7 g30 g

Last-10 hit rate

86%70%

Best model − market gap

+14.7 pts+13.5 pts

Markets evaluated

Open Ja'Marr Chase

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

Passing yardsOver the line in 3 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 168.4
Last 5: 171.2
Last 10: 168.4
Home · Away: 168.5 · 168.3

140

NYJ

183

PHI

181

NYG

222

BAL

170

HOU

102

IND

181

CLE

Date	Opp	Passing yards	Line
Oct 25	vs CLE	181	179.5	Over
Oct 18	@ IND	102	203.5	Under
Oct 11	vs HOU	170	190.5	Under
Oct 4	@ BAL	222	186.5	Over
Sep 27	@ NYG	181	177.5	Over
Sep 20	vs PHI	183	—
Sep 13	vs NYJ	140	202.5	Under

Rushing yardsOver the line in 2 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 10.1
Last 5: 8.6
Last 10: 10.1
Home · Away: 8.8 · 12.0

NYJ

PHI

NYG

BAL

HOU

IND

CLE

Date	Opp	Rushing yards	Line
Oct 25	vs CLE	5	8.5	Under
Oct 18	@ IND	7	11.5	Under
Oct 11	vs HOU	2	10.5	Under
Oct 4	@ BAL	27	9.5	Over
Sep 27	@ NYG	2	12.5	Under
Sep 20	vs PHI	7	—
Sep 13	vs NYJ	21	9.5	Over

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players

Ja'Marr Chasereceptions7/10 last 10 Wan'Dale Robinsonreceiving yards7 g sample Gunnar Helmreceptions4/6 last 10 Tony Pollardrushing yards56 g sample Mike Gesickireceptions67 g sample Tee Higginsreceptions42 g sample Joe Burrowpassing yards39 g sample Carnell Tatereceptions7 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.