NFLNO PLAY research

Carnell Tate

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameTennessee Titans @ Cincinnati BengalsSun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 7 games
Last 10 · receptions Measured: —
MCP consistency Model: —
Markets evaluated: 4

Evidence · receptionsNO PLAY

Line Market 4.5

Price-115

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel54.5%

Market impliedMarket53.5%

Model − market+1.0 ptsPrice -115

Edge Derived: +1.0 pts
EV per 1u Derived: +0.018u
Sample Measured: 7 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · receptionsMeasured

Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Carnell Tate

Cam Ward

Historical sample

7 g7 g

Last-10 hit rate

—86%

Best model − market gap

+1.0 pts+14.7 pts

Markets evaluated

Open Cam Ward

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

ReceptionsOver the line in 4 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 4.9
Last 5: 5.4
Last 10: 4.9
Home · Away: 3.3 · 7.0

NYJ

PHI

NYG

BAL

HOU

IND

CLE

Date	Opp	Receptions	Line
Oct 25	vs CLE	5	4.5	Over
Oct 18	@ IND	6	4.5	Over
Oct 11	vs HOU	1	4.5	Under
Oct 4	@ BAL	9	4.5	Over
Sep 27	@ NYG	6	3.5	Over
Sep 20	vs PHI	3	—
Sep 13	vs NYJ	4	—

Receiving yardsOver the line in 4 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 59.0
Last 5: 69.6
Last 10: 59.0
Home · Away: 35.0 · 91.0

NYJ

PHI

NYG

145

BAL

HOU

IND

CLE

Date	Opp	Receiving yards	Line
Oct 25	vs CLE	69	52.5	Over
Oct 18	@ IND	70	53.5	Over
Oct 11	vs HOU	6	47.5	Under
Oct 4	@ BAL	145	42.5	Over
Sep 27	@ NYG	58	38.5	Over
Sep 20	vs PHI	27	—
Sep 13	vs NYJ	38	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players

Cam Wardpassing yards6/7 last 10 Ja'Marr Chasereceptions7/10 last 10 Wan'Dale Robinsonreceiving yards7 g sample Gunnar Helmreceptions4/6 last 10 Tony Pollardrushing yards56 g sample Mike Gesickireceptions67 g sample Tee Higginsreceptions42 g sample Joe Burrowpassing yards39 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.