NFLNO PLAY research

Ja'Marr Chase

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameTennessee Titans @ Cincinnati BengalsSun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 30 games
Last 10 · receptions Measured: 7/10
MCP consistency Model: 54.6
Markets evaluated: 4

Evidence · receptionsNO PLAY

Line MarketUNDER 6.5

Price+105

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel62.3%

Market impliedMarket48.8%

Model − market+13.5 ptsPrice +105

Edge Derived: +13.5 pts
EV per 1u Derived: +0.276u
Sample Measured: 30 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

REPICOM evaluated this leg, but the complete NFL production qualification gates were not satisfied.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · receptionsMeasured

Cleared the line, last 107/1070%

Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.

Current miss streak: 0
MCP consistency Model: 54.6
Line on record: 6.5

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Ja'Marr Chase

Cam Ward

Historical sample

30 g7 g

Last-10 hit rate

70%86%

Best model − market gap

+13.5 pts+14.7 pts

Markets evaluated

Open Cam Ward

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

ReceptionsOver the line in 2 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 5.3
Last 5: 6.0
Last 10: 5.3
Home · Away: 5.4 · 4.5

DEN

BAL

CLE

HOU

PIT

JAX

MIA

BAL

Date	Opp	Receptions	Line
Oct 25	@ BAL	5	7.5	Under
Oct 11	@ MIA	6	6.5	Under
Oct 4	vs JAX	3	6.5	Under
Sep 27	@ PIT	9	6.5	Over
Sep 20	@ HOU	7	6.5	Over
Sep 13	vs TB	2	7.5	Under
Jan 9	@ CLE	2	—
Jan 2	vs KC	11	—
Dec 26	vs BAL	7	—
Dec 19	@ DEN	1	—

Receiving yardsOver the line in 3 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 58.5
Last 5: 67.8
Last 10: 77.1
Home · Away: 89.5 · 68.5

DEN

125

BAL

266

CLE

HOU

PIT

JAX

MIA

BAL

Date	Opp	Receiving yards	Line
Oct 25	@ BAL	62	82.5	Under
Oct 11	@ MIA	77	76.5	Over
Oct 4	vs JAX	27	82.5	Under
Sep 27	@ PIT	98	75.5	Over
Sep 20	@ HOU	75	72.5	Over
Sep 13	vs TB	12	85.5	Under
Jan 9	@ CLE	26	—
Jan 2	vs KC	266	—
Dec 26	vs BAL	125	—
Dec 19	@ DEN	3	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players

Cam Wardpassing yards6/7 last 10 Wan'Dale Robinsonreceiving yards7 g sample Gunnar Helmreceptions4/6 last 10 Tony Pollardrushing yards56 g sample Mike Gesickireceptions67 g sample Tee Higginsreceptions42 g sample Joe Burrowpassing yards39 g sample Carnell Tatereceptions7 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.