NFLNO PLAY research

T.J. Hockenson

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameMinnesota Vikings @ Detroit LionsSun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 48 games
Last 10 · receiving yards Measured: —
MCP consistency Model: —
Markets evaluated: 2

Evidence · receiving yardsNO PLAY

Line Market 40.5

Price-115

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel54.8%

Market impliedMarket53.5%

Model − market+1.3 ptsPrice -115

Edge Derived: +1.3 pts
EV per 1u Derived: +0.024u
Sample Measured: 48 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · receiving yardsMeasured

Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

T.J. Hockenson

Jameson Williams

Historical sample

48 g10 g

Last-10 hit rate

—80%

Best model − market gap

+1.3 pts+13.4 pts

Markets evaluated

Open Jameson Williams

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

ReceptionsOver the line in 1 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 4.5
Last 5: 4.6
Last 10: 4.0
Home · Away: 5.3 · 3.8

PIT

CLE

CHI

MIN

CHI

MIA

IND

Date	Opp	Receptions	Line
Oct 25	vs IND	4	4.5	Under
Oct 11	@ NO	1	4.5	Under
Oct 4	vs MIA	13	4.5	Over
Sep 27	@ TB	2	3.5	Under
Sep 20	@ CHI	3	—
Sep 13	vs GB	4	—
Dec 5	vs MIN	4	—
Nov 25	vs CHI	3	—
Nov 21	@ CLE	6	—
Nov 14	@ PIT	0	—

Receiving yardsOver the line in 1 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 39.5
Last 5: 40.2
Last 10: 37.2
Home · Away: 51.0 · 39.8

PIT

CLE

CHI

MIN

CHI

119

MIA

IND

Date	Opp	Receiving yards	Line
Oct 25	vs IND	35	36.5	Under
Oct 11	@ NO	7	36.5	Under
Oct 4	vs MIA	119	36.5	Over
Sep 27	@ TB	11	30.5	Under
Sep 20	@ CHI	29	—
Sep 13	vs GB	36	—
Dec 5	vs MIN	49	—
Nov 25	vs CHI	35	—
Nov 21	@ CLE	51	—
Nov 14	@ PIT	0	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game7 players

Jameson Williamsreceiving yards8/10 last 10 Sam LaPortareceptions7/10 last 10 Jordan Addisonreceptions6 g sample Kyler Murraypassing yards52 g sample Jahmyr Gibbsreceiving yards10 g sample Justin Jeffersonreceptions40 g sample Amon-Ra St. Brownreceiving yards26 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.