Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receiving yardsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 108/1080%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
1
MCP consistency Model
38.5
Line on record
51.5
Comparable miss streaks: 1 on record · next-game hit rate 100.0%. Context only — not a “due” signal.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 3 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
3.8
Last 5
3.8
Last 10
3.8
Home · Away
4.3 · 3.3
4
NO
2
BUF
4
NYJ
6
CAR
2
ARI
5
GB
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
vs GB
5
3.5
Over
Oct 11
@ ARI
2
3.5
Under
Oct 4
@ CAR
6
3.5
Over
Sep 27
vs NYJ
4
—
Sep 17
@ BUF
2
4.5
Under
Sep 13
vs NO
4
3.5
Over
Receiving yardsOver the line in 2 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
61.2
Last 5
64.4
Last 10
61.2
Home · Away
61.7 · 60.7
45
NO
33
BUF
49
NYJ
102
CAR
47
ARI
91
GB
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
vs GB
91
54.5
Over
Oct 11
@ ARI
47
52.5
Under
Oct 4
@ CAR
102
53.5
Over
Sep 27
vs NYJ
49
—
Sep 17
@ BUF
33
55.5
Under
Sep 13
vs NO
45
58.5
Under
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
