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NFLNO PLAY research

Justin Jefferson

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameMinnesota Vikings @ Detroit LionsSun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETGame intelligence →
Historical sample Measured
40 games
Last 10 · receptions Measured
—
MCP consistency Model
—
Markets evaluated
4
Evidence · receptionsNO PLAY
Line Market 5.5
Price-145
Sportsbook—
REPICOM modelModel53.9%
Market impliedMarket59.2%
Model − market-5.3 ptsPrice -145
Edge Derived
-5.3 pts
EV per 1u Derived
-0.089u
Sample Measured
40 g
REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model confidence is below the 60% NFL qualification floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample
recent10_games
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data
No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.
Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market
REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts
Compare playersPublic research only
Justin Jefferson
Jameson Williams
Historical sample
40 g10 g
Last-10 hit rate
—80%
Best model − market gap
+0.5 pts+13.4 pts
Markets evaluated
44
Open Jameson Williams
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 1 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
4.6
Last 5
4.6
Last 10
5.3
Home · Away
6.4 · 5.6
DateOppReceptionsLine
Oct 25vs IND45.5Under
Oct 11@ NO66.5Under
Sep 27@ TB25.5Under
Sep 20@ CHI3—
Sep 13vs GB85.5Over
Jan 9vs CHI5—
Jan 2@ GB6—
Dec 26vs LA8—
Dec 20@ CHI4—
Dec 9vs PIT7—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 2 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
60.4
Last 5
60.4
Last 10
70.9
Home · Away
97.8 · 78.1
DateOppReceiving yardsLine
Oct 25vs IND4473.5Under
Oct 11@ NO7978.5Over
Sep 27@ TB3273.5Under
Sep 20@ CHI55—
Sep 13vs GB9273.5Over
Jan 9vs CHI107—
Jan 2@ GB58—
Dec 26vs LA116—
Dec 20@ CHI47—
Dec 9vs PIT79—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game7 players
Jameson Williamsreceiving yards8/10 last 10Sam LaPortareceptions7/10 last 10Jordan Addisonreceptions6 g sampleKyler Murraypassing yards52 g sampleJahmyr Gibbsreceiving yards10 g sampleT.J. Hockensonreceiving yards48 g sampleAmon-Ra St. Brownreceiving yards26 g sample
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.