Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 107/1070%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
1
MCP consistency Model
51.3
Line on record
4.5
Comparable miss streaks: 2 on record · next-game hit rate 100.0%. Context only — not a “due” signal.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 4 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
4.7
Last 5
4.6
Last 10
4.7
Home · Away
3.0 · 6.3
5
NO
6
BUF
3
NYJ
8
CAR
5
ARI
1
GB
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
vs GB
1
4.5
Under
Oct 11
@ ARI
5
4.5
Over
Oct 4
@ CAR
8
4.5
Over
Sep 27
vs NYJ
3
—
Sep 17
@ BUF
6
4.5
Over
Sep 13
vs NO
5
4.5
Over
Receiving yardsOver the line in 4 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
55.7
Last 5
57.2
Last 10
55.7
Home · Away
36.7 · 74.7
48
NO
52
BUF
44
NYJ
84
CAR
88
ARI
18
GB
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
vs GB
18
49.5
Under
Oct 11
@ ARI
88
52.5
Over
Oct 4
@ CAR
84
48.5
Over
Sep 27
vs NYJ
44
—
Sep 17
@ BUF
52
43.5
Over
Sep 13
vs NO
48
41.5
Over
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
