NFLNO PLAY research

Kyler Murray

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameMinnesota Vikings @ Detroit LionsSun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 52 games
Last 10 · passing yards Measured: —
MCP consistency Model: —
Markets evaluated: 2

Evidence · passing yardsNO PLAY

Line Market 220.5

Price-115

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel57.9%

Market impliedMarket53.5%

Model − market+4.4 ptsPrice -115

Edge Derived: +4.4 pts
EV per 1u Derived: +0.083u
Sample Measured: 52 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model confidence is below the 60% NFL qualification floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · passing yardsMeasured

Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Kyler Murray

Jameson Williams

Historical sample

52 g10 g

Last-10 hit rate

—80%

Best model − market gap

+4.4 pts+13.4 pts

Markets evaluated

Open Jameson Williams

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

Passing yardsOver the line in 2 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 162.4
Last 5: 162.4
Last 10: 220.0
Home · Away: 262.6 · 225.8

383

257

DET

245

IND

263

DAL

240

SEA

168

247

MIA

229

150

IND

Date	Opp	Passing yards	Line
Oct 25	vs IND	150	207.5	Under
Oct 11	@ NO	229	212.5	Over
Oct 4	vs MIA	247	206.5	Over
Sep 27	@ TB	168	211.5	Under
Sep 13	vs GB	18	—
Jan 9	vs SEA	240	—
Jan 2	@ DAL	263	—
Dec 25	vs IND	245	—
Dec 19	@ DET	257	—
Dec 13	vs LA	383	—

Rushing yardsOver the line in 2 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 26.4
Last 5: 26.4
Last 10: 34.9
Home · Away: 41.4 · 33.6

DET

IND

DAL

SEA

MIA

IND

Date	Opp	Rushing yards	Line
Oct 25	vs IND	39	25.5	Over
Oct 11	@ NO	51	17.5	Over
Oct 4	vs MIA	16	20.5	Under
Sep 27	@ TB	17	20.5	Under
Sep 13	vs GB	9	—
Jan 9	vs SEA	35	—
Jan 2	@ DAL	44	—
Dec 25	vs IND	74	—
Dec 19	@ DET	3	—
Dec 13	vs LA	61	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game7 players

Jameson Williamsreceiving yards8/10 last 10 Sam LaPortareceptions7/10 last 10 Jordan Addisonreceptions6 g sample Jahmyr Gibbsreceiving yards10 g sample T.J. Hockensonreceiving yards48 g sample Justin Jeffersonreceptions40 g sample Amon-Ra St. Brownreceiving yards26 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.