Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Nov 1, 3:36 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · rushing yardsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 108/1080%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
0
MCP consistency Model
34
Line on record
51.5
Source & method · as of Nov 1, 3:36 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
Rushing yardsOver the line in 1 of last 2 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
48.8
Last 5
48.8
Last 10
52.2
Home · Away
59.9 · 56.9
64
LAC
50
DAL
32
PHI
102
CHI
30
WAS
83
WAS
9
TEN
82
CHI
8
LA
62
DAL
Date
Opp
Rushing yards
Line
Oct 26
vs DAL
62
65.5
Under
Oct 4
vs LA
8
—
Sep 28
@ CHI
82
75.5
Over
Sep 20
@ TEN
9
—
Sep 13
vs WAS
83
—
Jan 9
vs WAS
30
—
Jan 2
@ CHI
102
—
Dec 26
@ PHI
32
—
Dec 19
vs DAL
50
—
Dec 12
@ LAC
64
—
ReceptionsOver the line in 0 of last 2 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
1.2
Last 5
1.2
Last 10
1.7
Home · Away
3.4 · 3.1
3
LAC
4
DAL
1
PHI
0
CHI
3
WAS
1
WAS
1
TEN
1
CHI
1
LA
2
DAL
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 26
vs DAL
2
2.5
Under
Oct 4
vs LA
1
—
Sep 28
@ CHI
1
2.5
Under
Sep 20
@ TEN
1
—
Sep 13
vs WAS
1
—
Jan 9
vs WAS
3
—
Jan 2
@ CHI
0
—
Dec 26
@ PHI
1
—
Dec 19
vs DAL
4
—
Dec 12
@ LAC
3
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 0 of last 2 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
3.4
Last 5
3.4
Last 10
8.7
Home · Away
24.5 · 23.3
31
LAC
24
DAL
-4
PHI
0
CHI
19
WAS
-3
WAS
11
TEN
-2
CHI
2
LA
9
DAL
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 26
vs DAL
9
13.5
Under
Oct 4
vs LA
2
—
Sep 28
@ CHI
-2
12.5
Under
Sep 20
@ TEN
11
—
Sep 13
vs WAS
-3
—
Jan 9
vs WAS
19
—
Jan 2
@ CHI
0
—
Dec 26
@ PHI
-4
—
Dec 19
vs DAL
24
—
Dec 12
@ LAC
31
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Nov 1, 3:36 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
