Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:47 AM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 105/683%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
0
MCP consistency Model
78.9
Line on record
3.5
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:47 AM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 4 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
3.0
Last 5
2.8
Last 10
3.0
Home · Away
2.7 · 3.3
4
PHI
3
DAL
2
SEA
3
IND
3
NYG
3
SF
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 19
@ SF
3
1.5
Over
Oct 11
vs NYG
3
3.5
Under
Oct 4
vs IND
3
1.5
Over
Sep 27
vs SEA
2
1.5
Over
Sep 20
@ DAL
3
2.5
Over
Sep 13
@ PHI
4
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 3 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
34.2
Last 5
28.2
Last 10
34.2
Home · Away
22.3 · 46.0
64
PHI
24
DAL
15
SEA
21
IND
31
NYG
50
SF
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 19
@ SF
50
22.5
Over
Oct 11
vs NYG
31
33.5
Under
Oct 4
vs IND
21
17.5
Over
Sep 27
vs SEA
15
14.5
Over
Sep 20
@ DAL
24
26.5
Under
Sep 13
@ PHI
64
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 29, 3:47 AM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
