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NFLNO PLAY research

Stefon Diggs

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gamePhiladelphia Eagles @ Washington CommandersSun, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ETGame intelligence →
Historical sample Measured
112 games
Last 10 · receptions Measured
—
MCP consistency Model
—
Markets evaluated
4
Evidence · receptionsNO PLAY
Line Market 4.5
Price-160
Sportsbook—
REPICOM modelModel53.9%
Market impliedMarket61.5%
Model − market-7.6 ptsPrice -160
Edge Derived
-7.6 pts
EV per 1u Derived
-0.124u
Sample Measured
112 g
REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model confidence is below the 60% NFL qualification floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:47 AM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:47 AM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample
recent10_games
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data
No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.
Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market
REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts
Compare playersPublic research only
Stefon Diggs
Antonio Williams
Historical sample
112 g6 g
Last-10 hit rate
—83%
Best model − market gap
+2.7 pts+6.6 pts
Markets evaluated
44
Open Antonio Williams
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 4 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
4.8
Last 5
4.8
Last 10
5.6
Home · Away
6.3 · 7.1
DateOppReceptionsLine
Oct 19@ SF64.5Over
Oct 4vs IND54.5Over
Sep 27vs SEA43.5Over
Sep 20@ DAL54.5Over
Sep 13@ PHI4—
Jan 9vs NYJ9—
Jan 2vs ATL5—
Dec 26@ NE7—
Dec 19vs CAR4—
Dec 12@ TB7—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 2 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
42.8
Last 5
42.8
Last 10
54.1
Home · Away
64.5 · 86.8
DateOppReceiving yardsLine
Oct 19@ SF4439.5Over
Oct 4vs IND3543.5Under
Sep 27vs SEA3333.5Under
Sep 20@ DAL4744.5Over
Sep 13@ PHI55—
Jan 9vs NYJ81—
Jan 2vs ATL52—
Dec 26@ NE85—
Dec 19vs CAR35—
Dec 12@ TB74—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game5 players
Antonio Williamsreceptions5/6 last 10Treylon Burksreceptions5 g sampleRachaad Whitereceptions9 g sampleDyami Brownreceptions19 g sampleJayden Danielspassing yards7 g sample
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 29, 3:47 AM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.