Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Nov 1, 3:38 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
∅
Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.
Source & method · as of Nov 1, 3:38 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 3 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
4.4
Last 5
4.4
Last 10
4.4
Home · Away
4.3 · 4.1
1
NYG
6
NYJ
7
WAS
2
NYG
6
WAS
4
WAS
1
TEN
6
JAX
6
CAR
5
DAL
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 26
vs DAL
5
5.5
Under
Oct 18
vs CAR
6
3.5
Over
Oct 11
@ JAX
6
4.5
Over
Sep 20
@ TEN
1
—
Sep 13
vs WAS
4
3.5
Over
Jan 2
@ WAS
6
—
Dec 26
vs NYG
2
—
Dec 21
vs WAS
7
—
Dec 5
@ NYJ
6
—
Nov 28
@ NYG
1
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 2 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
45.6
Last 5
45.6
Last 10
56.7
Home · Away
53.0 · 52.5
0
NYG
105
NYJ
135
WAS
28
NYG
71
WAS
77
WAS
4
TEN
38
JAX
61
CAR
48
DAL
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 26
vs DAL
48
49.5
Under
Oct 18
vs CAR
61
34.5
Over
Oct 11
@ JAX
38
41.5
Under
Sep 20
@ TEN
4
—
Sep 13
vs WAS
77
33.5
Over
Jan 2
@ WAS
71
—
Dec 26
vs NYG
28
—
Dec 21
vs WAS
135
—
Dec 5
@ NYJ
105
—
Nov 28
@ NYG
0
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Nov 1, 3:38 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
