Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Nov 1, 3:35 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receiving yardsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 106/786%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
1
MCP consistency Model
17.8
Line on record
43.5
Source & method · as of Nov 1, 3:35 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 4 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
3.6
Last 5
4.2
Last 10
3.6
Home · Away
4.0 · 3.0
3
WAS
1
TEN
3
CHI
3
LA
5
JAX
3
CAR
7
DAL
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 26
vs DAL
7
4.5
Over
Oct 18
vs CAR
3
2.5
Over
Oct 11
@ JAX
5
3.5
Over
Oct 4
vs LA
3
—
Sep 28
@ CHI
3
2.5
Over
Sep 20
@ TEN
1
—
Sep 13
vs WAS
3
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 4 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
27.7
Last 5
37.0
Last 10
27.7
Home · Away
27.0 · 28.7
-5
WAS
14
TEN
29
CHI
27
LA
43
JAX
19
CAR
67
DAL
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 26
vs DAL
67
39.5
Over
Oct 18
vs CAR
19
18.5
Over
Oct 11
@ JAX
43
32.5
Over
Oct 4
vs LA
27
—
Sep 28
@ CHI
29
24.5
Over
Sep 20
@ TEN
14
—
Sep 13
vs WAS
-5
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Nov 1, 3:35 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
