NFLNO PLAY research

Pat Freiermuth

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameCleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh SteelersSun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 27 games
Last 10 · receptions Measured: —
MCP consistency Model: —
Markets evaluated: 4

Evidence · receptionsNO PLAY

Line Market 2.5

Price-140

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel60.4%

Market impliedMarket58.3%

Model − market+2.1 ptsPrice -140

Edge Derived: +2.1 pts
EV per 1u Derived: +0.035u
Sample Measured: 27 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

REPICOM evaluated this leg, but the complete NFL production qualification gates were not satisfied.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:48 AM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · receptionsMeasured

Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.

Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:48 AM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Pat Freiermuth

Rico Dowdle

Historical sample

27 g11 g

Last-10 hit rate

—80%

Best model − market gap

+2.1 pts+13.9 pts

Markets evaluated

Open Rico Dowdle

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

ReceptionsOver the line in 3 of last 7 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 3.3
Last 5: 2.8
Last 10: 3.8
Home · Away: 4.2 · 3.0

TEN

CLE

BAL

ATL

CIN

CLE

IND

Date	Opp	Receptions	Line
Oct 25	@ NO	2	3.5	Under
Oct 18	@ TB	2	3.5	Under
Oct 11	vs IND	5	3.5	Over
Oct 1	@ CLE	3	3.5	Under
Sep 27	vs CIN	2	3.5	Under
Sep 20	@ NE	4	3.5	Over
Sep 13	vs ATL	5	2.5	Over
Jan 9	@ BAL	6	—
Jan 3	vs CLE	5	—
Dec 19	vs TEN	4	—

Receiving yardsOver the line in 3 of last 7 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 28.6
Last 5: 24.4
Last 10: 31.2
Home · Away: 33.5 · 26.8

TEN

CLE

BAL

ATL

CIN

CLE

IND

Date	Opp	Receiving yards	Line
Oct 25	@ NO	20	30.5	Under
Oct 18	@ TB	11	34.5	Under
Oct 11	vs IND	44	27.5	Over
Oct 1	@ CLE	17	28.5	Under
Sep 27	vs CIN	30	35.5	Under
Sep 20	@ NE	32	27.5	Over
Sep 13	vs ATL	46	25.5	Over
Jan 9	@ BAL	53	—
Jan 3	vs CLE	22	—
Dec 19	vs TEN	37	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players

Rico Dowdlerushing yards8/10 last 10 Denzel Bostonreceptions7 g sample Jaylen Warrenreceiving yards10 g sample Jerry Jeudyreceptions8/10 last 10 Darnell Washingtonreceptions9 g sample Aaron Rodgerspassing yards103 g sample Germie Bernardreceiving yards6 g sample DK Metcalfreceptions61 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 29, 3:48 AM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.