NFLNO PLAY research

Aaron Rodgers

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameCleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh SteelersSun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 103 games
Last 10 · passing yards Measured: —
MCP consistency Model: —
Markets evaluated: 2

Evidence · passing yardsNO PLAY

Line Market 219.5

Price-115

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel59.8%

Market impliedMarket53.5%

Model − market+6.3 ptsPrice -115

Edge Derived: +6.3 pts
EV per 1u Derived: +0.118u
Sample Measured: 103 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model confidence is below the 60% NFL qualification floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:46 AM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · passing yardsMeasured

Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.

Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:46 AM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Aaron Rodgers

Rico Dowdle

Historical sample

103 g11 g

Last-10 hit rate

—80%

Best model − market gap

+6.3 pts+13.9 pts

Markets evaluated

Open Rico Dowdle

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

Passing yardsOver the line in 4 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 242.7
Last 5: 258.2
Last 10: 232.7
Home · Away: 261.8 · 252.2

202

CLE

288

MIN

138

DET

221

ATL

187

292

CIN

299

CLE

235

IND

253

212

Date	Opp	Passing yards	Line
Oct 25	@ NO	212	229.5	Under
Oct 18	@ TB	253	227.5	Over
Oct 11	vs IND	235	225.5	Over
Oct 1	@ CLE	299	213.5	Over
Sep 27	vs CIN	292	223.5	Over
Sep 20	@ NE	187	204.5	Under
Sep 13	vs ATL	221	—
Jan 9	@ DET	138	—
Jan 2	vs MIN	288	—
Dec 25	vs CLE	202	—

Rushing yardsOver the line in 4 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 3.3
Last 5: 4.2
Last 10: 3.7
Home · Away: 7.1 · 6.4

-1

CLE

MIN

DET

-3

ATL

CIN

CLE

IND

-1

Date	Opp	Rushing yards	Line
Oct 25	@ NO	6	1.5	Over
Oct 18	@ TB	-1	0.5	Under
Oct 11	vs IND	6	1.5	Over
Oct 1	@ CLE	0	1.5	Under
Sep 27	vs CIN	10	0.5	Over
Sep 20	@ NE	5	0.5	Over
Sep 13	vs ATL	-3	—
Jan 9	@ DET	7	—
Jan 2	vs MIN	8	—
Dec 25	vs CLE	-1	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players

Rico Dowdlerushing yards8/10 last 10 Denzel Bostonreceptions7 g sample Jaylen Warrenreceiving yards10 g sample Pat Freiermuthreceptions27 g sample Jerry Jeudyreceptions8/10 last 10 Darnell Washingtonreceptions9 g sample Germie Bernardreceiving yards6 g sample DK Metcalfreceptions61 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 29, 3:46 AM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.