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NFLNO PLAY research

Denzel Boston

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameCleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh SteelersSun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETGame intelligence →
Historical sample Measured
7 games
Last 10 · receptions Measured
—
MCP consistency Model
—
Markets evaluated
4
Evidence · receptionsNO PLAY
Line Market 3.5
Price-130
Sportsbook—
REPICOM modelModel62.2%
Market impliedMarket56.5%
Model − market+5.7 ptsPrice -130
Edge Derived
+5.7 pts
EV per 1u Derived
+0.101u
Sample Measured
7 g
REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:47 AM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:47 AM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample
recent10_games
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data
No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.
Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market
REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts
Compare playersPublic research only
Denzel Boston
Rico Dowdle
Historical sample
7 g11 g
Last-10 hit rate
—80%
Best model − market gap
+5.7 pts+13.9 pts
Markets evaluated
42
Open Rico Dowdle
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 2 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
2.9
Last 5
2.6
Last 10
2.9
Home · Away
2.3 · 3.3
DateOppReceptionsLine
Oct 25@ TEN33.5Under
Oct 18vs BAL13.5Under
Oct 11@ NYJ33.5Under
Oct 1vs PIT42.5Over
Sep 27vs CAR2—
Sep 20@ TB52.5Over
Sep 13@ JAX2—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 2 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
53.1
Last 5
43.6
Last 10
53.1
Home · Away
48.3 · 56.8
DateOppReceiving yardsLine
Oct 25@ TEN2751.5Under
Oct 18vs BAL1551.5Under
Oct 11@ NYJ4647.5Under
Oct 1vs PIT8937.5Over
Sep 27vs CAR41—
Sep 20@ TB9530.5Over
Sep 13@ JAX59—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players
Rico Dowdlerushing yards8/10 last 10Jaylen Warrenreceiving yards10 g samplePat Freiermuthreceptions27 g sampleJerry Jeudyreceptions8/10 last 10Darnell Washingtonreceptions9 g sampleAaron Rodgerspassing yards103 g sampleGermie Bernardreceiving yards6 g sampleDK Metcalfreceptions61 g sample
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 29, 3:47 AM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.