Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:47 AM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 107/978%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
1
MCP consistency Model
8.5
Line on record
2.5
Comparable miss streaks: 1 on record · next-game hit rate 100.0%. Context only — not a “due” signal.
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:47 AM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 1 of last 7 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
2.4
Last 5
2.2
Last 10
2.4
Home · Away
3.3 · 1.8
2
NYG
4
WAS
3
BAL
3
HOU
3
TB
2
GB
0
PHI
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 26
@ PHI
0
2.5
Under
Oct 18
@ GB
2
3.5
Under
Oct 8
vs TB
3
3.5
Under
Oct 4
@ HOU
3
3.5
Under
Sep 27
vs BAL
3
3.5
Under
Sep 20
vs WAS
4
3.5
Over
Sep 13
@ NYG
2
3.5
Under
Receiving yardsOver the line in 1 of last 7 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
16.4
Last 5
13.2
Last 10
16.4
Home · Away
28.3 · 7.5
6
NYG
43
WAS
23
BAL
11
HOU
19
TB
13
GB
0
PHI
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 26
@ PHI
0
18.5
Under
Oct 18
@ GB
13
23.5
Under
Oct 8
vs TB
19
27.5
Under
Oct 4
@ HOU
11
23.5
Under
Sep 27
vs BAL
23
27.5
Under
Sep 20
vs WAS
43
26.5
Over
Sep 13
@ NYG
6
26.5
Under
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 29, 3:47 AM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
