Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:48 AM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · passing yardsMeasured
∅
Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:48 AM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
Passing yardsOver the line in 3 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
228.6
Last 5
245.6
Last 10
175.6
Home · Away
117.6 · 120.2
156
BAL
0
NYJ
0
NO
277
LAC
95
SEA
280
SF
166
NYG
292
DET
218
LA
272
DEN
Date
Opp
Passing yards
Line
Oct 25
vs DEN
272
224.5
Over
Oct 18
@ LA
218
—
Oct 11
vs DET
292
267.5
Over
Oct 4
@ NYG
166
230.5
Under
Sep 27
@ SF
280
225.5
Over
Sep 20
vs SEA
95
216.5
Under
Sep 13
@ LAC
277
—
Dec 27
@ NO
0
—
Dec 19
vs NYJ
0
—
Nov 11
vs BAL
156
—
Rushing yardsOver the line in 3 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
11.4
Last 5
11.8
Last 10
8.6
Home · Away
7.8 · 8.4
4
BAL
2
NYJ
0
NO
14
LAC
7
SEA
4
SF
18
NYG
19
DET
2
LA
16
DEN
Date
Opp
Rushing yards
Line
Oct 25
vs DEN
16
6.5
Over
Oct 18
@ LA
2
—
Oct 11
vs DET
19
8.5
Over
Oct 4
@ NYG
18
7.5
Over
Sep 27
@ SF
4
7.5
Under
Sep 20
vs SEA
7
9.5
Under
Sep 13
@ LAC
14
—
Dec 27
@ NO
0
—
Dec 19
vs NYJ
2
—
Nov 11
vs BAL
4
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 29, 3:48 AM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.