Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:48 AM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
∅
Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:48 AM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
Rushing yardsOver the line in 3 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
67.4
Last 5
80.2
Last 10
56.0
Home · Away
52.6 · 62.0
12
LV
30
LAC
46
KC
41
NYG
30
WAS
98
BAL
62
HOU
45
TB
41
GB
155
PHI
Date
Opp
Rushing yards
Line
Oct 26
@ PHI
155
65.5
Over
Oct 18
@ GB
41
66.5
Under
Oct 8
vs TB
45
67.5
Under
Oct 4
@ HOU
62
59.5
Over
Sep 27
vs BAL
98
57.5
Over
Sep 20
vs WAS
30
72.5
Under
Sep 13
@ NYG
41
—
Jan 8
vs KC
46
—
Jan 2
@ LAC
30
—
Dec 26
@ LV
12
—
ReceptionsOver the line in 2 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
2.7
Last 5
2.2
Last 10
2.4
Home · Away
2.5 · 2.7
2
LV
1
LAC
2
KC
5
NYG
3
WAS
2
BAL
5
HOU
2
TB
2
GB
0
PHI
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 26
@ PHI
0
2.5
Under
Oct 18
@ GB
2
2.5
Under
Oct 8
vs TB
2
2.5
Under
Oct 4
@ HOU
5
2.5
Over
Sep 27
vs BAL
2
2.5
Under
Sep 20
vs WAS
3
2.5
Over
Sep 13
@ NYG
5
—
Jan 8
vs KC
2
—
Jan 2
@ LAC
1
—
Dec 26
@ LV
2
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 3 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
14.7
Last 5
10.4
Last 10
13.1
Home · Away
17.4 · 17.5
8
LV
2
LAC
18
KC
31
NYG
20
WAS
5
BAL
21
HOU
17
TB
9
GB
0
PHI
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 26
@ PHI
0
12.5
Under
Oct 18
@ GB
9
13.5
Under
Oct 8
vs TB
17
13.5
Over
Oct 4
@ HOU
21
13.5
Over
Sep 27
vs BAL
5
13.5
Under
Sep 20
vs WAS
20
12.5
Over
Sep 13
@ NYG
31
—
Jan 8
vs KC
18
—
Jan 2
@ LAC
2
—
Dec 26
@ LV
8
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 29, 3:48 AM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
